Friday, May 06, 2005

UK distancing itself from U.S. foreign policy?

Paul Reynolds of the BBC has this to say about potential UK-US relations in a third-term Labour government:
    The clipping of Tony Blair's wings by a British electorate angry over Iraq probably means that the highly activist and interventionist foreign policy which marked his first two terms will be diminished. Mr Blair's alliance with George W Bush could be weakened. . . . The alliance between Mr Blair and US President George W Bush is likely to be weakened. American policy will therefore be framed with the British far less in mind.

    Tony Blair has paid a high price for his support of President Bush and now, without acknowledging past faults, he is likely to channel his energies into more voter-friendly policy areas.

    In the immediate future he will use the current British chairmanship of the G8 group of industrial countries and the presidency of the EU for six months from 1 July to press for action on world poverty and climate change.

Neither of these issues has much appeal for the U.S. administration (or, frankly, for the mainstream U.S. media). What's more, notes Reynolds, as Blair has more or less admitted he will likely "stand down before the next election, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown's likely promotion to prime minister would mean further changes and a greater distance from Washington."

Of course Blair isn't about to pull UK troops out of Iraq, at least in the short run. But, looking at the big foreign issues likely to predominate in the next four years - Iran, global poverty, climate change, China, the EU - it seems more likely that the UK will drift away from the U.S. And Blair will be much less visible in Washington, DC than he was in the past 3-4 years. Thus the biggest UK-originated motors driving British news to be consumed in the U.S. will be diminished somewhat. The question is whether, and to what extent, U.S. audiences will still seek out UK media even as the UK itself is less closely associated with U.S. policies.

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